Inflation slowed more than expected in June, easing to an annual rate of 3.5% from 4.2% in May as lower gasoline prices helped cool price growth, according to Labor Department data released Tuesday.
By the numbers
Economists polled by the financial data firm FactSet predicted June inflation would rise at an annual rate of 3.9%.
The cooler reading comes after three consecutive months of increases that pushed the CPI to its highest level in more than three years. Inflation slowed as a result of declining energy prices, with gasoline prices tumbling 9.7% in June from a month earlier.
June’s decline represented the largest one-month decrease since April 2020, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said.
With oil and gasoline prices falling in June and early July, May may represent this year’s peak inflation reading, Oxford Economics said in a report published July 14.
The CPI, a basket of goods and services typically bought by consumers, tracks changes in prices over time.
Core CPI, which excludes the more volatile energy and food categories, rose at an annual rate of 2.6%, down from 2.9% in May and below economists’ expectations.
The lower-than-expected inflation figure comes after the U.S. and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding last month, which implemented a 60-day ceasefire in the war.
However, tensions between the two countries have since flared as they vie for control of the Strait of Hormuz.
“A serious re-escalation of the conflict would threaten to revive the key upside risk to inflation and raise the odds of rate hikes,” Goldman Sachs analysts said in a research note before Tuesday’s CPI release.
What experts are saying
Experts cautioned that today’s CPI figure doesn’t reflect the recent rise in energy prices driven by renewed tensions between the U.S. and Iran.
On Tuesday, the price of Brent crude, the international benchmark, shot up to a one-month high of more than $86 a barrel after President Trump said the U.S. would reinstitute a military blockade in the Strait of Hormuz and impose a 20% fee on cargo shipments transiting the waterway.
The national average for gasoline sat at $3.86 a gallon on Tuesday, according to AAA, down from a peak of more than $4.50 in May but still above the sub-$3-a-gallon level before the war started.
“Oil and gasoline prices — the main reason inflation eased in June — have started to edge back up on renewed US-Iran tensions, but the CPI won’t reflect this for another month,” Nic Puckrin, a markets expert and former Goldman Sachs analyst, said in an email.
