One of the top jobs in men’s college basketball has now been open for a week-plus following North Carolina’s firing of coach Hubert Davis on March 24.
Below, we’ll break down the North Carolina basketball next head coach odds at Kalshi and the latest news on this coaching search, then analyze the cases for and against the top candidates taking over in Chapel Hill (Bulls coach Billy Donovan, Arizona coach Tommy Lloyd and Michigan coach Dusty May) before closing with a prediction.
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Latest News On North Carolina Basketball Coaching Search
A few of the first names that came to mind as strong candidates to take over in Chapel Hill when this job came open — Alabama’s Nate Oats and Iowa State’s T.J. Otzelberger — have confirmed, or at least strongly implied, that they will be remaining with their current teams.
Oats was all but ruled out as a candidate when Bama AD Greg Byrne tweeted a picture of him and Oats alongside the message, “We are good! He’s not going anywhere!” Related: Oats — whose probability in this market peaked at 17.7 percent on Kalshi on March 25 — has a 2 percent probability as of Friday, April 3.
In betting terms, that 17.7 percent probability/chance equated to American odds of +465, while his current 2 percent chance carries equivalent American odds of +4900.
Otzelberger’s chance at Kalshi briefly reached as high as 82.1 percent on March 23, but dropped all the way to 22 percent later that morning, and he has a 1 percent chance of taking over in Chapel Hill based on the latest trading activity as of Friday, April 3.
Latest News, Analysis Of Top Current North Carolina Tar Heels Coaching Candidates
As of Friday, April 3, the names that are getting the most buzz — both at Kalshi and in various reports online — are Chicago Bulls coach Billy Donovan (38% chance at Kalshi*), Arizona coach Tommy Lloyd (33% chance) and Michigan coach Dusty May (6%).
*All chances referred to here are based on the prices at Kalshi as of Friday morning.
Billy Donovan (38% chance at Kalshi — equivalent American odds: +163)
The two-time NCAA national championship-winning coach has been an NBA head coach for the last 11 seasons, including five with the Thunder (’15-16 through ’19-20) and six with the Bulls (’20-21 through ’25-26).
His status as one of the Heels’ top targets makes all the sense in the world given his success with Florida, which he led to back-to-back titles in 2006 and 2007.
Donovan would not be able to take over as North Carolina’s coach until after the NBA regular season ends on April 12, which is five days after the NCAA Transfer Portal is scheduled to open (Tuesday, April 7).
Tommy Lloyd (33% chance at Kalshi — equivalent American odds: +203)
Spoiler alert: Lloyd, IMO, is the most likely candidate to be hired by the Heels.
Lloyd, like May, has pressing business ahead this weekend, but he’s been asked about this job multiple times, and his comments have fueled increasing speculation that a move from Tucson to Chapel Hill is imminent.
Lloyd was most recently asked about the North Carolina job on Thursday, and he said, “I’m 100% locked in on Arizona basketball right now, and I’m excited to see what this team can do,” according to ESPN’s Myron Medcalf.
Lloyd previously said after his team’s Elite Eight win over Purdue that “Arizona’s going to have another good coach after me, I promise you.”
He followed up on that comment on Tuesday, as Arizonasports.com editor David Veenstra noted, saying, “It’s absolutely true. There’s gonna be another coach. This is a great program. I didn’t say when. People are going to speculate all they want. Guys, this team has my full focus.”
The other reason Lloyd has become a popular candidate for this job is the backdrop within the Arizona athletics department. Wildcats AD Desireé Reed-Francois was hired in 2024 to address budget issues affecting the Arizona athletic department. This week, the relationship between Lloyd and Reed-Francois was described as “sometimes rocky” in a column by Yahoo Sports senior writer Dan Wolken.
Dusty May (6% chance at Kalshi — equivalent American odds: +1567)
May, who is in his second year as head coach at Michigan, did not close the door, per se, on considering the UNC job, but said on Thursday to Jeff Goodman of The Field of 68, “I’m not going to comment on any job that’s not mine. I’m incredibly happy, honored, and blessed to be the coach of Michigan in the Final Four.”
Best Bet On Next North Carolina Basketball Coach: Tommy Lloyd
Whether you go by their comments, or lack thereof, or other factors, Lloyd seems like the most likely candidate — at least among the top options at Kalshi right now — to replace Davis as the next head coach of North Carolina. ]
Donovan leaving the NBA at the age of 61, and taking over more than a week after the opening of the portal, would be a shock to many.
While it’s hardly a slam-dunk that Lloyd will leave Arizona following at least a Final Four appearance (and potentially a national title), Lloyd seems more likely to take the North Carolina job than either Donovan or May based on what we know right now.
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