The recovery of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz appeared to have stalled Thursday, with just six tankers making the transit through the gateway to the Persian Gulf, according to data from the Kpler trade intelligence group.
Wednesday saw 21 such vessels transit the waterway, but it also saw a sharp escalation in tit-for-tat attacks by Iran and the U.S., which was sparked earlier in the week by Iranian strikes on several tankers.
MarineTraffic.com data from earlier in the day showed just three tankers in the strait, two of which are under U.S. sanctions for links to Iran, and all of which were tracking along the northern part of the waterway, on the path designated by Iran.
President Trump declared the ceasefire over Wednesday but left the door open to more talks, and analysts said that the path to lasting peace was never going to be straightforward.
“Ebbs and flows, that’s what I’m expecting, not just over the summer, but almost until the end of the year, until we get something concrete between Tehran and Washington,” Andrew Wilson, head of research at BRS shipbrokers, said in a webinar held by maritime journal Lloyd’s List on Thursday.
“We’re certainly better than we were in March and April, but until we have some sort of substantial agreement … it’s just going to remain very, very volatile,” he added.
“We’re not going back to February 27, and I think everybody understands that,” Lloyd’s List editor-in-chief Richard Meade said in Thursday’s briefing. “A tentative 60-day agreement with few guarantees was never really going to change the dial much in terms of shipping decisions.”
